국제신용평가사 스탠더드앤드푸어스(S&P)는 24일 한국의 국가신용등급(A+)과 전망(안정적)을 현행으로 유지한다고 발표했다.

 

이에 따라 세계 3대 신용평가사들은 모두 한국의 국가신용등급이 안정적임을 재확인됐다.

‘13.9월 현재 우리나라의 국가신용등급은 올해 8월 22일에 Fitch가 AA-(안정적), 지난해 8월 27일에 Moody's가 Aa3(안정적)으로 평가했었다.

 

S&P는 이날 △우호적인 정책환경 △양호한 재정건전성 △견실한 대외채무구조를 현행유지 결정의 주요 요인으로 언급했다.

S&P는 정책환경에 대해 "정책의 효율성, 안정성, 예측가능성이 최근 어려운 대외여건 아래서도 한국 경제의 발전과 안정에 크게 기여했다"고 평가했다.

재정건전성과 관련해선 "2000년 이후 대부분 흑자를 기록하고 있는 재정수지와 낮은 수준의 정부부채 등이 국가신용등급에 긍정적 요인으로 작용했다"고 전했다.

또 "대외채무구조는 순(純)대외채권국으로서 경상수지 흑자 기조와 국제적으로 활발히 통용되는 원화가 한국의 외채 관련 부담을 완화하는 요인으로 작용했다"고 덧붙였다.

다만, "한반도의 지정학적 리스크와 통일 관련 우발채무는 한국 국가신용등급의 취약요인"이라고 지적했다.

또 S&P는 "한국 국가신용등급에 대한 '안정적 전망'은 향후 몇 년 간 북한의 정치 불안이 심각하지 않을 것이라는 기대에 근거하고 있다"고 강조했다.

그러면서 '성장률 상승에 따른 선진국 수준으로의 1인당 국내총생산(GDP) 증대'와 '단기외채 비중 축소 등을 통한 국내 은행의 대외건전성 제고' 등을 상향 요인으로 꼽았다.

하향 요인으로는 '급진적 통일가능성 고조', '북한 리스크 심화', '공기업 부채 문제' 등을 거론했다.

앞서 다른 국제신용평가사인 피치도 지난달 22일 한국의 국가신용등급과 전망을 'AA-' 및 '안정적'으로 재확인한 바 있다.

다음은 S&P 측 보도자료 원문이다.

S&P: Republic of Korea Long-Term Ratings Affirmed At ‘A+/AA-’; Outlook Stable

• The ratings on Korea reflect its favorable policy environment, sound fiscal position, and broadly balanced external liability position. Significant security risks and contingent liabilities offset these strengths.

• We are affirming the foreign-currency and local-currency credit ratings at ‘A+/A-1’ and ‘AA-/A-1+’, respectively.

• The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable.

Singapore, Sept. 24, 2013--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it had affirmed its foreign- and local-currency credit ratings on the Republic of Korea at 'A+/A-1' and ‘AA-/A-1+’, respectively. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. Our transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment is 'AA'.

Our ratings on Korea reflect its favorable policy environment, sound fiscal position, and net external creditor position. Significant security risks and contingent liabilities offset these strengths.

Standard & Poor’s assesses the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of Korea’s policymaking and political institutions to be supportive of its credit quality. Korea’s policies have helped to promote economic development, as well as stabilize the domestic economy during recent periods of severe global economic stress. The political system features effective checks and balances among key institutions. Major policy changes are generally announced in advance and implemented following consultation and debate.

We believe that Korea’s modest external debt net of reserves and financial sector assets--projected at an average 8.1% of current account receipts in 2013 to 2016--and consistent current account surpluses allow policymakers more flexibility in adverse economic conditions. The internationally and actively traded Korean won also helps to mitigate risks arising from the foreign-currency indebtedness of the country's financial sector.

The Korean government’s healthy fiscal position is another key support for its creditworthiness, in our view. Including the social security fund balance, Korea has seen general government surpluses in most years since 2000. However, the change in debt exceeds the deficit because the defined-benefit pension fund assets are not included in the net debt calculation and because central bank debt is rising. Net general government debt, which we project at 23% of GDP in 2013, remains modest.

In our opinion, the chief weaknesses in Korea’s credit fundamentals are contingent liabilities and geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula. Korea faces the prospects of bearing the uncertain, but likely heavy, costs of a reunification if the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea) regime fails. Heightened public perceptions of the risks of an inter-Korean military conflict have also generated temporary volatility in Korea’s economy and financial system.

The T&C assessment for Korea is 'AA'. Standard & Poor’s opinion is that the likelihood of the sovereign restricting access to foreign exchange needed by Korean-based nonsovereign issuers for debt servicing is moderately lower than the likelihood of the sovereign defaulting on its foreign currency obligations. This reflects the fairly open foreign exchange regime in the country. Economic policies are outward-oriented, but import dependency is significant.

The stable outlook on the ratings on Korea reflects our expectation that the DPRK will not experience significant political instability in the next few years. We could lower the ratings on signs that political instability in the DPRK threatens to trigger a sudden reunification or prolong heightened security tensions on the Korean peninsula. Depending on how the scenario unfolds, we would lower the sovereign ratings by one or more notches. We could also lower the ratings if the financial system is significantly stressed, which could happen if a prolonged deterioration in economic conditions weakens asset quality. The same factors could also weigh on the debt of government-owned entities, which has been rising faster than and exceeds government debt.

On the other hand, we could raise the ratings if risks from the DPRK ease materially or if economic growth accelerates substantially, raising GDP per capita closer to that of many higher-rated peers. We could also raise the ratings if we assess that Korea’s banking system has become less susceptible to international financial disruptions due to a significantly reduced reliance on external short-term funding.

Related Criteria And Research

• Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions, June 24, 2013

• Methodology For Linking Short-Term And Long-Term Ratings For Corporate, Insurance And Sovereign Issuers, May 7, 2013.

• Methodology: Criteria For Determining Transfer And Convertibility Assessments, May 19, 2009.

Ratings List
 Ratings Affirmed

Korea (Republic of)

Sovereign Credit Rating
 Foreign Currency A+/Stable/A-1
 Local Currency AA-/Stable/A-1+

Senior Unsecured
 Foreign Currency A+
 Local Currency AA-

Transfer & Convertibility Assessment
 Local Currency AA